Transparent assumptions

How the model works

Nothing is hidden. Below is every weight, the exact formula, and the per-stage breakdown for the current allocation.

The calculation

Each stage contributes years saved on a saturating curve — dollars matter most when a stage is starved and deliver diminishing returns once it is well covered (you cannot buy biology faster than it goes):

yearsSaved(stage) = leverage × (1 − e^(−allocation / saturation))

next $1M buys   = (leverage / saturation) × e^(−allocation / saturation)

total years saved = Σ yearsSaved(stage)

The bottleneck is simply the stage whose "next $1M buys" value is highest — by definition, where a dollar buys the most acceleration right now.

Stage assumptions

Stage	Leverage (max yrs)	Saturation ($M)	Allocation ($M)
Basic research	3.0	40	$25M
Tools & data	2.4	25	$15M
Clinical trials	4.0	80	$40M
Translation	2.2	35	$20M

Result for this allocation

$100M total → ~5.0 years saved.

Stage	Yrs saved	Next $1M buys	Coverage
Basic research	1.394	0.0401	63%
Tools & dataBottleneck	1.083	0.0527	60%
Clinical trials	1.574	0.0303	50%
Translation	0.958	0.0355	57%

verify.log

$ cure-fund verify
model = stages(leverage, saturation) + allocation
fingerprint: b04b135a4d03262f
years_saved = 5.01 · reproducible from inputs